The Smart Money
Ed Bain’s Kinky Stats for Kentucky Oaks Day
10th race, Grade 2 $200,000 The American Turf
No. 2, Great Mills (9-2)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Bain Stat: When teamed together, Asmussen and jockey Julien Leparoux win at 4 percent.
Sample: 22 races, 1 first.
No. 3, Banned (3-1)
Trainer: Thomas Proctor
Bain Stat: When a Proctor runner goes off as the post-time favorite in its second start off the layoff, the horse wins 44 percent of the time.
Sample: 34 races, 15 first.
Bain Stat: Eight of those races in that scenario were run at Churchill Downs, and the Proctor horse won six of them. Twenty-eight of the 34 races in the sample were contested on the turf, and Proctor won 13 of them, 46 percent.
No. 13, Air Support (9-2)
Trainer: Claude McGaughey.
Bain Stat: When McGaughey has won a route race as the first start in a four-race form cycle, he wins 23 percent of his following starts. He finishes in the top two 40 percent of the time and top three 58 percent. Sample: 93 races, 22 first, 16 second, 16 third.
Bain Stat: With runners for owner Stuart Janney III in the same scenario, McGaughey wins 42 percent of the time.
Sample: 26 races, 11 first, 2 second, 3 third
Bain Stat: In turf races in the same scenario, McGaughey and Janney win 45 percent of their starts together.
Sample: 22 races, 10 first, 2 second, 3 third.
11th race, Grade 1 $1 million Kentucky Oaks
No. 1, Joyful Victory (5-2)
Trainer: Larry Jones
Bain Stat: Owner Fox Hill Farms Inc. wins 31 percent in stakes races.
Sample: 44 races, 14 first.
No. 2, Lilacs and Lace (12-1)
Trainer: John Terranova II
Bain Stat: When teamed with jockey Javier Castellano, trainer John Terranova II wins at 30 percent.
Sample: 63 races, 19 first.
Bain Stat: Of those 63 starts, 14 were in stakes races, which they won 28 percent of the time. Last out, Lilacs and Lace paid $99.40 to win the Ashland.
Sample: 14 races, 4 first.
Ed Bain has been betting professionally since 1994 when he developed his own trainer statistics. Through tracking statistics, he discovered Layoffs and Claims, separated by sprint and route were the dominant stat. He has been featured in several books, including the lead chapter of Mark Cramer’s book Kinkier Handicapping. In 2000, he offered his Layoffs and Claims statistics online. In 2001 he wrote a book called The 4 + 30 Percentages and Profitability named after his primary betting stat. In 2006, Bain expanded his Layoff and Claim statistics to include his Automatic Bet and in 2008 Ed developed his own Past Performances that include all these statistics as well as a detail page on all trainers, owners, jockeys and each horse. 
